Rational oder irrational?
Seit Anfang August diskutiere ich mit Volker Schilling darüber, ob wir bei unserem Depotwert Rational Gewinne mitnehmen sollten oder nicht. Ich bin fürs Laufenlassen, Volker fürs Verkaufen oder zumindest fürs Reduzieren. Jüngst hat er noch einen ganz anderen Vorschlag gemacht. Aber der Reihe nach:
Rational oder irrational? Urteilen Sie selbst.
Volkers erster Versuch kam Anfang August – bei einem Rational-Kurs von ca. 615 EUR:
Von: Volker Schilling
Datum: 9. August 2018 um 11:09:49 MESZ
Sehr gute Zahlen. Kurs 5,5% im Plus. Ganz schön hoch gelaufen und von der 200 Tage Linie einiges weg. Könnten mal über Gewinnmitnahmen nachdenken? Evtl. Halbierung? Meinungen?
Datum: 9. August 2018 um 11:45:39 MESZ
Betreff: Aw: Rational
Datum: 13. August 2018 um 21:26:28 MESZ
Betreff: Rational …
Am Mittwoch startete Volker einen neuen Versuch. Rational notierte inzwischen bei 674 EUR:
Von: Volker Schilling
Datum: 29. August 2018 um 12:57:11 MESZ
Hallo Ihr Beiden,
ich möchte nochmal kurz auf Rational zu sprechen kommen. Nach wie vor bin ich der Meinung, dass wir hier einmal Gewinne mitnehmen sollten. Da Ihr beide allerdings dagegen wart möchte ich einen alternativen Vorschlag zumindest für den Fonds unterbreiten:
Statt einem Verkauf können wir einen Call Schreiben bei 700 und einen Put verkaufen bei 640. Das würde kostentechnisch neutral laufen. Wir könnten dann Gewinne bis 700 noch mitnehmen (plus Prämie, wäre das rechnerisch bis 712) und wären gesichert bei 640.
Was meint Ihr?
Datum: 29. August 2018 um 14:12:55 MESZ
Von: Volker Schilling
Datum: 29. August 2018 um 15:10:39 MESZ
Betreff: AW: Rational
Natürlich kriegst du das Ding auch noch logarithmisch:
Datum: 29. August 2018 um 16:32:05 MESZ
Betreff: Aw: AW: Rational
If, for instance, you’re a business owner and you see new conditions that will make growth easier, you will be more likely to hire, expand, and make capital investments. Get enough businesses thinking that way at the same time and you have the makings of an economic boom… which is what the leading survey of small business owners says is happening.
The National Federation of Independent Business has been surveying its small business members since 1973, overseen by my very good friend Dr. Bill Dunkelberg (Dunk to his friends). The NFIB data is a rich, long-term history of small business owner sentiment, both positive and negative. It has varied over time, as you might expect. Presently, their index is near its most optimistic level ever—0.1% below the 1983 all-time high. Considering where we were a few years ago, that is amazing.
As you can see, NFIB member optimism had two prior peaks near the current level. One was in 2004, when the housing boom was starting to take off. It would end badly a few years later, but those were good times while they lasted.
The other peak was in 1983. The Volcker Fed had mostly stamped out inflation while Reagan’s tax cuts and deregulation were beginning to bear fruit. This marked a boom period that would last even longer; the next recession would not strike until mid-1990.
As I like to say, history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. This time, the Fed has been working to stamp out deflation, not inflation, and appears to have made some progress. We also have a new, business-oriented administration, similar in some respects to the shift from Carter to Reagan. This encouraged early 1980s business owners, and the Trump administration is doing the same now.
See that big late-2016 leap in the NFIB index? That happened immediately after the election. If you recall, almost everyone expected a Hillary Clinton win, and business owners had resigned themselves to continued high taxes and evermore intrusive regulation. The Trump win was thus a pleasant surprise to many business owners, immediately visible in the data. (Contrary to some, I don’t think most business owners were thrilled with Trump. They were more thrilled not to have Clinton.)
Now, why does this matter? It matters because NFIB members create jobs, spend money on capital investments that create even more jobs, and develop innovative products that raise living standards. They are more likely to do all those things when they feel confident… which they have since November 2016.
Notably, this confidence has actually grown since then despite all the assorted scandals and criticism surrounding the Trump administration, not to mention the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy. This would not have persisted for almost two years now if they didn’t see reasons for optimism in their own numbers. It is more than blind faith.
In the past, we’ve seen this index decline gradually over 2–3 years as the economy edged toward recession. We see no such thing now. We see the opposite as the index moves up. That suggests, as I heard at Camp Kotok, the present expansion will continue into 2019 and beyond.